Ocean Inflatable
Ocean Inflatable
Inflation Tsunami
On 26 December 2004 a magnitude 9.3 earthquake rocked the subduction zone along the India and Burma plates in the Indian Ocean, sending several walls of water - some as high as a hundred meters - Racing in Sumatra, Indonesia at a rate of almost 600 miles per hour. The tsunami that soil suggested that life took more than 225,000 people and caused incalculable economic damage is still for the region. Survivors interviewed after the disaster, almost unanimously shared the same grim story was minutes before the tsunami hit, and the animals are frightened fickle and the beach water dramatically decreased. Ignorant dealt with, many People the receding water as spectacle and looked the situation as an opportunity to venture and to collect stranded fish and shellfish. They were too late in the breathtaking Ernst able to learn.
And yet, many without knowing it, even devastating tsunami could also building. And how many are in Indonesia, the warning signs now becoming clear but we understand what we see, or are we treating it as a blessing, we are walking out to collect fish and shellfish?
Economic Tectonics
are far below the surface of the U.S. economy, a seismic fault, where the Federal Reserve meets the fractional reserve banking system. Unlike solid Banking system, where every dollar is borrowed one U.S. dollars deposited in the bank in a fixed term change to how a CD is using this system initial investments and deposits pyramid to a hundredfold increase in the money supply in the U.S. economy - used mainly pressure from the air $ 100,000 for every $ 1000 more productive to keep money. The new benefit is a Loans to individuals and businesses, where to be repaid with interest at a later date. The Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressive pricing policy fixes interest rates encourage (the cost of immediate access to money) to more citizens to take out these loans.
When a business as a loan from a bank takes a repay new facility, build s / he signs a contract with the bank, the loan with interest after a certain time. As unbelievable as it sounds, like the Bank, of which he / she does not upset the money really lend the money. One might ask, where does the money. With a few keystrokes on the computer bank, the banker types that the Contractor now has the money in his account. The money, as banks reluctant to say, is none other than the promise of paying back. The new money then borrow for Architects used, engineers, contractors, workers, suppliers, etc. If this money in the hands of this second stage, exchanged some money for more goods and services and money saved or invested in, say, mutual funds, stocks, retirement accounts, etc. This makes money in the form of cash, savings and investment, called M1 and M2. It is further part of the MZM (Money of Zero Maturity) - Money is available immediately for withdrawal.
The essence of inflation
Monetary inflation starts at the very moment that has more money, the economy, as it occurred in the assets market. It could be easy to think that if everyone suddenly in the U.S. one million U.S. dollars were rich you could buy all, a million dollars worth of stuff and better off. As nice as it sounds, this is simply not true. No, if every one million U.S. dollars rich, cars, boats, big screen TVs, etc. would immediately fly off the shelves (so to speak) would not hold the producers in a position with the increasing demand for these Products, and that prices will increase the demand for very few rocket means. After a short time, prices would the influx of new money and everyone would reflect exactly where they were before the million-dollar pay day - only now the purchasing power of a dollar would be greatly reduced.
Although the amounts of the loans are different and the number and Distribution of the debtor are distributed unevenly, banks are busy, in fact, in exactly this practice. With all this extra money in circulation, but we should not already massive inflation? The Fed is quick to point out that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) shows that inflation is fairly stable at around 2% per year. Herein lies the insidious Nature of the Federal Reserve System. Although money flows like water and seems of unlimited supply, natural resources, goods and workers are not unlimited. The extra money in the economy encourages expansion and investment in areas that are not necessarily sustainable in terms of assets and supply and demand. Nevertheless, as long as consumers and businesses increased spending on the influx of money and the company can continue to produce at high levels, inflation is in check held. What happens if market the expenditure and production?
The answer is that we get serious problems such as found in the current housing market. Massive investment and unsustainable in the evacuated housing market with infinite credit expansion and government loan guarantees on both principle and interest loans. As long as the consumer bought real estate, construction and lending could continue. However, something finally occurred to any Keynesian economists think seemed possible: case Supply exceeded demand and the market simply dried up.
The real estate bubble was just the side effect of easy money-credit-crisis earthquake deep under the surface of the economy. And the economy now his turmoil: unsustainable businesses by annual investments made easy money began closing, unemployment is rising began, homeowners go into foreclosure, bankers with houses that nobody wanted to put, and finally failed banks, bailouts, and with it came a new Influx of debt - money printed out of thin air, and the inflation tsunami was on its way.
The warning signs
But what are the warning signs an inflation tsunami? Ironically, the most visible manifestation is sudden and sharp deflation also coupled with a sharp increase in the strength of the dollar. In other words, look for the water from the coast and the height of the water rising from the horizon to resign. Why might that be? As consumers pull back expenditure and agitate, retailers and draw it back with the fear to hold more product supply as commodity demand. Manufacturers feel is back and . Withdraw Manufacturers see the withdrawal and reduce stop digging for expansion projects and production. Parts suppliers see cut and then the demand only small quantities of raw materials - iron, steel, coal, oil, etc., together with other goods. Finally, if resources fall production, the water could also be close to nadir.
"This week's headlines
"Prices Record Largest ever case of Precious month" Wall Street Journal
"U.S. Producer prices dropped sharply last month, "Wall Street Journal
"U.S. Steel redundancies"-Wall Street Journal
"Giant Mines Scramble to Cut Output" Wall Street Journal "
As industry moves back, all the talk is turning towards deflation. Some even mention the blessing of lower to collect prizes and head of fish and shellfish. For if the deflation was slow and steady and money was pinned to a commodity like gold, deflation could also be a boon for the economy be. But deflation is scary to these economic beach. The printed money, time investment, frozen credit markets, foreign debt, and rescue cash is ballooning, take money away from material production and consumption markets. The money is still out there though, and it must go somewhere.
Suddenly, the Fed is in a precarious conflict of interest, it is logical and appropriate for the Fed to sell securities, money from the market - and thus an increase to borrow the interest, but without money, freeze the credit markets further, businesses fail, unemployment rises, and the chain of chaos continues. So instead the Fed is not Occasion, but rather lowers interest rates and money goes into the banking system. Hilse Roth and Evans of the Wall Street Journal spells it cearly:
"... But the mere threat [deflation] brings additional pressure on Congress and the new Obama administration plan to quickly advance a comprehensive economic stimulus package. It also increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will take steps - such as lower interest rates to push - to boost sagging consumer and business demand. "
Source: John and Kelly Roth Hilse Evans. Prices Post Rare case, a new test for the U.S. central bank. Wall Street Journal. 20. November 2008.
As the money begins with bankers who now qualify for ever more stringent loan requirements - the rich - the first grave to get the new money. For them, remain the purchasing power of the dollar essentially unchanged. However, as that money - which are not withdraw an increase in production because of the economic asset - is launched, a growing gap between money and hard assets. Further, because new production is low, new jobs are not as fast as the money grows created. Those citizens in their personal finances are overstretched, including the poor and lower middle class and on fixed incomes, begin the liquidation of the MZM. And the tsunami grows as it approaches land.
The result is that the dollar will probably crash and get flood the consumer market and inflation, since the money Volume exceeds more assets. The purchasing power of the dollar will plummet, and the proximity to water - washed away - the holders of the dollar.
The size and scope of the inflation tsunami
The big question at this point, how great is this inflation tsunami be? This question is largely on the liquidation of M1 and M2 money. If inflation is in terms of MZM in 2008 investigated instead of the CPI, we find that the actual inflation rate could be as high as 20%. If liquidation was overall inflation could be this high or higher as defined in the CPI. This would be disastrous, but a total liquidation may not realistic. Maybe 15% but could be. to pump To make matters worse, the Fed and the Treasury still money in the economy, which aftershocks and consumer confidence and could undermine business confidence.
Where should you be if inflation tsunami strikes? The answer, as far away from the dollar as possible. My voice is the hard commodities, especially precious metals - gold, silver and platinum. As the purchasing power of the dollar falls, the demand for, say, gold rises, the price drift on the current Inflation-adjusted market value price, which is probably about $ 2,250 per ounce (some project it lower and some much higher, depending on where and when you start measuring).
These investments are not without risks, in particular the governments of the world refuge for precious metals and even the recovery in exchange for fiat dollars, as in the USA in the 1930's on pricing.
Tsunami can be stopped?
Simply put, there is no stopping the tsunami as soon as it is started. However limited, it can be pushed back. Right now the U.S. Treasury and the Fed earth, sky and sea to move to an economic to avoid collapse. If credit markets were miraculously revive and consumers and entrepreneurs, only manufacturing companies develop sound supply-demand principles, Hire the unemployed, and all these things from the tsunami, repel, they may be able to collapse. If the Fed then burned billions of dollars and Congress banned the fractional reserve banking system, the force of the tsunami will be somewhat mitigated, if not removed. Will this happen? No
Really the best solution for this problem is a more than 80 years, described, and it remains remarkably unchanged, no matter how advanced the disease. Ludwig von Mises accurately predicted the boom and bust cycle has been right all along - to reduce government spending, lower or eliminate taxation of individuals and companies back to sound money pay off based on gold or silver, the end of the Fed and fractional reserve banking system, debt, saving money, investing with real capital grow Economy without the shackles of egalitarian price controls, subsidies, taxes and tariffs, and trade freely. Even if we adopted this policy immediately, there would be another to pay the price, but the sooner we turn, the more we find our way to a higher level.
About the Author
Chris Waner is a writer, artist, and musician in New York City. You can read more of Chris' articles at The Free Exchange
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